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The perils of forecasting and the need for a disciplined investment process
31/05/2017

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The perils of forecasting and the need for a disciplined investment process

Article by Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 

The attached note looks at the perils of forecasting economic and investment variables like GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates and the share market. 

The key points are as follows:  

·       The increasing noise around global economies and investment markets since the global financial crisis highlights the need for investors to have a disciplined approach to investing.

·       Economic and investment forecasts are often seen as central to investing, but while they can be useful they should be treated with caution and are no substitute for having a disciplined approach to investing. 

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